As dairy prices have tumbled to a (current) projection of $6.50 (bank forecast for lending) for the coming season, a major indicator of international trade has hit its lowest level for nearly 30 years:
World GDP growth expectations are collapsing, trade volumes are slowing, and the Baltic Dry Index has continued to slump to its lowest since the start of January 2013 (a holiday period). For some context, this is the lowest July level for the Baltic Dry since 1986… “noise”
The threats of economic action by the USA regarding its interests in Ukraine has expanded, with the US government focusing its regulatory attention on German giant Deutsche Bank in a thinly veiled threat:
Deutsche has a total derivative exposure that amounts to €55 trillion or just about $75 trillion. That’s a trillion with a T, and is about 100 times greater than the €522 billion in deposits the bank has. It is also 5x greater than the GDP of Europe and more or less the same as the GDP of… the world.
…Then again, none of DB’s numbers actually matter: if the banks needs a bailout the Fed will promptly step in, and today’s advisory has one simple end point, which happens to be the same as the recent BNP $9 billion fine – don’t even dare to side with Putin over the US. Because you sure have big bank over there Germany… It would be a pity if the NY Fed i) revealed just how insolvent it truly was and ii) decided not to bail it out subsequently.
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As for Deutsche Bank’s response perhaps the simplest and most effective one would be for the Frankfurt megabank to tell the NY Fed that perhaps its own 150x leverage is just a little more worthy of attention.